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Cognitive Biases - Mental Shortcuts & Blind Spots

Name: Cognitive Biases - Mental Shortcuts & Blind Spots
Author: Psychology & Behavioral Economics

Master the psychological patterns that shape your thinking and decision-making • 25 essential biases every critical thinker should know

Based on Cognitive Biases by Psychology & Behavioral Economics

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Cognitive Biases

#01

Information Processing

See what you believe

Confirmation Bias

We seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms our existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.

Your brain is a belief-defending machine. Once you form an opinion, you unconsciously filter reality to support it. You notice articles, facts, and examples that agree with you while dismissing everything else as biased or flawed.

This is why two people can watch the same debate and both believe their side won. They each cherry-pick the moments that support their pre-existing views.

Social media algorithms exploit this bias by showing you content you'll agree with, creating echo chambers that reinforce your worldview and make opposing views seem rare or extreme.

Combat this by actively seeking disconfirming evidence. Ask 'What would prove me wrong?' and genuinely look for it. Follow people who disagree with you. Test your beliefs regularly.

Cognitive Biases

#02

Decision Making

First number wins

Anchoring Bias

The first piece of information you receive disproportionately influences all subsequent judgments, even when it's irrelevant.

See a $500 jacket marked down to $200? Feels like a great deal. But if you first saw it listed at $200, you'd think twice. The original price 'anchors' your perception of value.

Negotiators use this ruthlessly. The first number thrown out in a salary negotiation, home price discussion, or business deal becomes the anchor around which everything revolves.

Even completely random anchors affect us. Studies show that asking people if Gandhi died before or after age 140 (vs. age 9) changes their estimates of his actual age of death by years.

To resist: generate your own anchor before negotiations. Research fair prices independently. Never let the other party drop the first number without preparation.

Cognitive Biases

#03

Risk Assessment

Easy to recall = common

Availability Heuristic

We judge the likelihood of events by how easily examples come to mind, not by actual statistics.

After seeing plane crash news, people avoid flying and drive instead—even though driving is far more dangerous. Vivid, recent, emotional events dominate our risk assessment.

We think terrorism, shark attacks, and stranger kidnappings are common threats because media coverage makes them mentally available. Meanwhile, heart disease and car accidents (actual top killers) seem mundane and forgettable.

This bias makes us terrible at evaluating risk. We overestimate dramatic, rare dangers and underestimate mundane, common ones. Our feelings about risk are based on memory accessibility, not mathematics.

Counter this by looking up actual statistics before making risk-based decisions. Your gut feeling about probability is almost certainly wrong.

Cognitive Biases

#04

Self-Assessment

Confidence ≠ Competence

Dunning-Kruger Effect

People with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. People with high ability underestimate theirs.

The less you know about a subject, the more confident you feel. Beginners think they understand everything because they don't know enough to realize how much they don't know.

Experts are plagued by doubt because they see all the complexity, nuance, and exceptions. They know what they don't know. Novices feel certain because ignorance shields them from complexity.

This is why the loudest voices in online debates are often the least informed. Overconfident beginners dominate discussions while actual experts hesitate, aware of the subtleties.

The cure: as you learn more, you should become less certain, not more. If your confidence grows faster than your knowledge, you're in Dunning-Kruger territory.

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Cognitive Biases - Mental Shortcuts & Blind Spots

Confirmation Bias

Anchoring Bias

Availability Heuristic

Dunning-Kruger Effect

In this deck

Confirmation Bias

Anchoring Bias

Availability Heuristic

Dunning-Kruger Effect

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Hindsight Bias

Bandwagon Effect

Halo Effect

Loss Aversion

Framing Effect

Recency Bias

Fundamental Attribution Error

Status Quo Bias

Planning Fallacy

Survivorship Bias

Optimism Bias

Negativity Bias

Groupthink

Authority Bias

Self-Serving Bias

Spotlight Effect

False Consensus Effect

Illusion of Control

Mere Exposure Effect

Clustering Illusion

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